What May Happen After Musharraf

By: Wajid Shamsul Hasan

LONDON, March 19, 2005

LONDON, March 19: In almost all the western capitals and among those who are involved in war against global terrorism the million-dollar question begging an answer is: What after Musharraf?

The think tanks in the United States, United Kingdom and other capitals are busy drawing up various scenarios. The profound concern of people who matter across the world is understandable since apparently all their eggs are in Musharraf's basket with relevance to Pakistan.

Majority of experts believe that in the eventuality of Musharraf's sudden exit, his test-tube system will evaporate and the country pushed on the verge of being a failed state, would suffer chaos, anarchy and civil strife beyond the capacity of the military to salvage.

Alarming concern has emanated from the fact that it is taken for granted that Musharraf's days are numbered and that a countdown on him has begun. This apprehension is reflected in observations in the western media on who will fill the vacuum caused by Musharraf's sudden departure.

I had in one of my columns mentioned the fears expressed by CIA analysts about the future of Pakistan. Now I have a report by British experts titled "Global Risk Outlook 2005". Its section on Pakistan states that, "Musharraf will likely announce a time table for elections in 2005, and Benazir Bhutto will make her much anticipated return to Pakistan in the coming year to participate.

"In the event of Musharraf's assassination, General Ahsan Aslam Hayat will assume the post of Chief of Army Staff. He will lead Pakistan to elections within six months, making a transition back to the civilian administration, while maintaining the form and function of the National Security Council. The US will continue to pressurize Pakistan to crack down further on Al-Qaeda operatives. The US will implicitly suggest it will undertake operations in Pakistan unless Musharraf demonstrates a greater commitment to rooting out terrorists."

Those who matter apprehend that Musharraf's sudden departure would create enough chaotic ground for the Islamists -- both in the army and outside-to take over the control of the country especially its nuclear arsenal. They say that since the Islamic militants are lethally armed and trained by the army professionals in the days of American Afghan Jihad, it would be impossible for the military to meet their challenge in the streets. 

In view of such grave fears, they want a message sent to General Musharraf that it would be in his interest that before anything happens to him he hold free and fair elections without delay and let the country be managed by the genuinely elected and truly representative leadership. Once a democratic transition is put in order it shall eliminate the chances of a take over by the Islamic militants within the military and outside. Such an arrangement could provide Musharraf a life insurance. His enemies would know that eliminating Musharaf would not lead to chaos or crisis.

Although there are no public pronouncements but observations made by think tanks including "Global Risk Outlook 2005", are believed to weigh heavily on the minds of international leaders.

US Secretary of State Dr Condoleezza Rice held in-depth discussions recently with General Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad in the light of President George Bush's commitment to democracy as a global phenomenon with no exceptions including Pakistan.

The growing feeling is that international leaders who talk about the virtues of bringing democracy to the Middle East sound selective when they wish for democracy for Iraq, Syria and Iran but apparently not for Pakistan.

Perhaps that is why Dr Rice said in her joint news conference with Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri, "We talked about Pakistan's internal politics and the need for a democratic path ahead for Pakistan".

In reply to a question, she referred to her discussion with General Pervez Musharraf about the path towards elections in 2007. She said that talk of democracy was central to the US dialogue with every country in the world as it was with Pakistan. The Bush Administration, she underlined, looked forward to more democratic Pakistan in future. Asked if she sought any assurances from General Musharraf on this issue, Ms Rice said: "We did talk about the importance of democratic reforms in Pakistan, about getting on road to democratic reforms that would, in fact, lead to free and fair elections."

While Dr Rice was candid about Bush Administration's commitment to democracy, sources in Islamabad say it was diplomatically conveyed to General Musharraf that his survival lay in coming to terms with moderate parties and leaders like PPP and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Not only that, it might as well eliminate chances of his assassination at the hands of Jihadi extremists who think that his forced exit would lead to a power vacuum and they would be in a position to take over. However, installation of an elected government under a popular prime minister would secure Pakistan from becoming a Talibanized state.

The saner advice for reconciliation with the moderate political parties is already causing panic among the PML (Q) . The recent defeat of the ruling party on the floor of the National Assembly proved that the government has lost its majority. This strengthens opposition's demand for fresh elections under an autonomous Election Commission.

This would negate the adverse effects of the rigged elections that brought the present assemblies into being and help Musharraf fulfil his 1999 promise to restore true democracy reviving hope among the masses that issues relating to their basic needs would be attended to.

Profound concern has also been conveyed that the regime is failing to keep the federation together. The smaller provinces are totally alienated. The Baloch youth have established the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the malaise is spreading like an epidemic in other provinces too where militancy among the deprived and step-motherly treated youngsters is touching new heights of resentment and grievance against what they call Islamabad's exploitation.

When late General Ziaul Haq had become all powerful, by virtue of his Eight Amendment in the Constitution and by staying glued to army chief's uniform, had ceased to think about his retirement. And on one occasion when he was asked when would he quit, his answer was that he would die with his military boots on in the Presidential chair. This remark was a death sentence passed by him on himself to be executed allegedly by his ambitious juniors. In this connection General Musharraf should not take lightly the warning given by Zia's last Vice Chief of Staff who believes that nature, as in the case of Zia, takes its course when normal and constitutional means of change, transfer of power and vacation of tenured offices are blocked.

Musharraf has survived many assassination attempts. He seems to have the proverbial nine lives of a cat. Not only him, even his handpicked tin-pot prime minister was targeted besides, of course, the current Vice Chief of Army Staff when he was Corps Commander in Karachi. Besides Musharraf's being known as an era of suicides by starving people, it has record number of assassination attempts ever in Pakistan on the head of the state. The two put together, makes Pakistan a country living dangerously, moment to moment.

Steps should be taken forthwith to pre-empt it by holding fresh and transparent elections in 2005. These polls should be open to all political parties and personalities and to make them above board, they be conducted under an Election Commission consisting of the Pakistan Human Rights Commission, with transparent election laws, an accurate and immediate vote count and instantaneous announcement of results. Perhaps early elections are the only way out of an uncertain future for Pakistan while bullet of an assassin would only confound our problems.