Who is afraid of the deal?
 

The deal between Benazir Bhutto and President Musharraf is still in a speculative stage. Although, it has attracted a great deal of controversy but it remains a mystery. Every party, every leader is adding to its mysteriousness by making statements and warning PPP of dire consequences if it were to strike a deal with President Musharraf. One day, it appears that the deal is on and the next day, it seems off. There has been so much talk against the ethereal deal that the word 'deal' has acquired a pejorative undertone. Opposition to the deal has mostly come from the PML-N, MMA and the PML-Q, the ruling party, betraying the emotions of fear. It sounds strange that for once, the government party and the opposition have joined hands though unintentionally for a cause: to discourage the PPP from falling prey to a deal with President Musharraf.

The mystery has deepened with the revelation by a newspaper quoting unidentified government sources that both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif would be allowed to contest the next elections. The premise has been built on the assumption that without their participation, the elections would have scant credibility. To be sure, elections minus Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif would neither be accepted here nor abroad as transparent and clean elections. It is a plausible guess that if Benazir Bhutto was allowed to lead the election campaign of her party, then a similar deal could not be denied to Nawaz Sharif. That brings us to MQM chief Altaf Hussain, the third high profile leader in self-exile. His return passage should also be smoothened by dropping charges against him, which are all trumped up.

The MQM is the only party that is not afraid of the deal. On the contrary, Dr Farooq Sattar, its parliamentary leader in the National Assembly, has welcomed such a development. He said on Thursday: "Whether in power or not, it is time for the moderate and ideological parties to chalk out a collective strategy to put Pakistan on a sound political track." He added that the MQM would welcome on board the newcomers as it is already part of the system.

The MMA has closed the doors to reconciliation by declaring that President General Pervez Musharraf is not acceptable to it whether in uniform or without it. It really does not matter what is acceptable to MMA because it, or any other party, does not have the veto to accept or reject a president. To be certain, President Musharraf would not withdraw from the presidential race because the MMA or the PML-N says so for he is also holding the office of army chief. President Musharraf claims that it is his constitutional right to wear the uniform until the end of this year. The saner way to settle this issue -- whether President Musharraf could contest elections in uniform -- is the court of law. The MMA should approach the court to determine the uniform issue instead of threatening agitation.

The lawyers' ongoing protest has convinced the MMA that President Musharraf is politically vulnerable for first time since he came to power nearly eight years ago. President Musharraf during his rule has successfully reversed or drastically amended many traditional and antiquated policies and laws despite vociferous criticism from the MMA and other opposition parties. Some recent events, which include countrywide lawyers' protests and Lal Masjid and Hafsa stand-off, may have sent encouraging signals to the MMA and other opposition parties that the time is ripe for launching agitation against President Musharraf.

The MMA's thinking is flawed that it can force President Musharraf to quit through its street power. If the agitation climbs to the level wherein the government ceases to function, which is very unlikely, then it would be anybody's game. The most likely scenario would be the replacement of a uniformed president by a uniformed chief martial law administrator. The CMLA would address the nation promising early and clean elections and the whole game would restart from the beginning. A new anti-corruption drive would be launched that would serve as an excuse to postpone the elections again and again. The CMLA would announce solemnly that the house has to be cleaned first before democracy could be restored.

The MMA, as the MQM has openly admitted, is also a part of the existing system, introduced and nurtured by President Musharraf. It runs NWFP exclusively and is a partner of the PML-Q in the Balochistan government. Most importantly, the MMA's Secretary-General Maulana Fazlur Rehman is the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly and by virtue of that office is a member of the National Security Council and so is Mr Durrani, chief minister of NWFP. The MMA, whether it admits or not, is now a member of the ruling elite. In these circumstances, it would be sheer madness on the part of the MMA to contemplate street agitation which could lead to violence. Why not wait for elections and work towards ensuring that they are held in time, transparently and cleanly? If that does not happen, then the MMA would be justified to protest.

It is now certain that the new president will be elected by the present assemblies later this year, just a month or two before they would be due for dissolution after completing their five-year term. This was stated by no less a person than President himself. He has also indicated clearly that he would remain in uniform until his re-election, as he is permitted to do so by the constitution. The opposition challenges these assertions claiming that the present assemblies cannot elect a president at the fag end of their lives and a person cannot offer himself for election if he is holding a government post. Who will decide what the truth is? Not street protests, but the court of law.

Benazir Bhutto is simply trying to reach an understanding with President Musharraf so that elections are free and clean and the playing field is not filled with landmines. She would avoid confrontation to secure democracy permanently. She wants a safe passage to Pakistan, which, if promised, would benefit Nawaz Sharif and Altaf Hussain too. President Musharraf is not averse to political deals if they bring stability and promote democracy. He would even be willing to adopt a conciliatory attitude towards Nawaz Sharif if the latter would let bygones be bygones.

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